2016 was a momentous year for our electricity supply: the signing and ratification of the Paris climate agreement, the announced closure of all coal power stations by 2025 and of course the launch of this blog. In this piece I pull out what I think are the key messages in GB electricity from 2016.
2016 was a momentous year for our electricity supply: the signing and ratification of the Paris climate agreement, the announced closure of all coal power stations by 2025 and of course the launch of this blog. So what are the highlights?
- Low carbon or renewable generation provided 49% of our electricity over the year.
- Coal showed a big decline in production as power stations closed. Gas generation increased, providing the bulk of our electricity
- Solar provided more electricity than coal in the summer.
- Wind provided more electricity than coal over the whole year.
- Our electricity was 4.6% less carbon intensive at the end of the year than in January
In this blog we look in more detail at the big stories over the year.
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Coal
All coal power stations in Scotland have now closed (Longannet being the last). Over the year, coal use has fallen from 17% of our electricity supply in Q1 to just 10% in Q4 (see the two pie charts below). For the first time in over 120 years, there were periods where no coal contributed to British electricity. These figures signal a big change.
Britain’s electricity was 4.6% less carbon intensive at the end of the year than it was in January.
Coal generation is ending but still plays a bigger role in our electricity supply over the last quarter than either biomass, solar and imports. Replacing coal with new generation (or reduced demand) is going to be a challenge.
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Low carbon renewables
Low carbon renewables played an increasing role in our electricity supply.
Solar power hit the headlines in the summer, providing a record 24% of electricity for an hour in June and providing more than 5% of our electricity between April and September.
It was even reported that solar provided more electricity than coal over the summer. My figures corroborate this (solar provided 0.4% more energy than coal between April and September). I would expect that gap to be much larger next summer.
Even in the winter, solar provided impressive amounts of electricity: 2.1% of our electrical energy came from solar over this time and over a third of the electricity for my house came from the solar panels on my roof- and I live in North Nottinghamshire!
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Wind also saw record numbers in 2016. If you include my estimate for embedded wind, it met more of our electricity than coal over the year (10.5% of wind versus 9.2% coal).
On Christmas Day, wind provided 30% of the electricity needed to cook our turkeys and a record 42% of power at 4am that day. Santa evidently had reindeers and a sail powering his sleigh!
With more off-shore wind being constructed and coming online in 2017, expect record amounts of wind generation next year.
Nuclear
Nuclear was the baseload for our electricity throughout the year. One of Britain’s reactors also set a record for the longest continuous operation ever achieved, although other plants did suffer shutdowns.
Headlines were dominated by the announcement of a new power station at Hinkley Point. You can learn about the impact that this, and other nuclear power stations, could have on our electricity supply by reading my manifesto.
In 2017, expect news on Hinckley and other new nuclear power stations following in its wake.
Gas
Gas appears to have had a bumper year in 2016. It grew from 36% of our electricity in Q1 to 46% the final quarter of the year. As coal power stations are closed, many expect them to be replaced by flexible gas plants.
In the short term this is certainly true, but there are headwinds for gas power station operators. Energy storage is beginning to win competitive auctions against peaking gas plants and 2016 saw the announcement of some of the biggest batteries in the world.
With the closing of coal power stations, Britain loses the ability to play the gas and coal markets to provide cheap electricity (it loses the ability choose to buy gas or coal, whatever is cheapest). Energy storage offers an alternative. Britain is beginning to provide power by buying energy storage instead of gas plants.
Is this the beginning of the store-age?
Predictions for 2017
What will our electricity supply look like in 2017? Here are my predictions:
- Gas will provide the bulk of the energy for our electricity. However, expect opposition to domestic and imported shale gas, lack of progress on carbon capture & storage and a there should be a growing realisation that Britain is heavily dependent on gas. I hope to blog more on where our gas is coming from and how much we are consuming in the new year.
- Coal generation will continue to fall. I expect it to fall to less than 5% over the summer, perhaps being off completely for days at a time in May, June and July.
- Renewables will continue to grow – despite subsidy cuts. Wind and solar are among the cheapest forms of electricity and Britain has strong industry in this field. I expect solar to provide more than 6% of our electricity over the summer next year and more than 50% of our electricity to come from low carbon sources.
- The store-age is upon us. The flexibility of storage will gain much attention next year both from batteries in homes and fields as well as in our cars. Expect innovative heat storage products and new pumped storage plants to be announced and these to help meet the capacity gap.
It has been a fun year working on MyGridGB this year. I thank you all for your comments and support on Twitter, email and Facebook and look forward to more in 2017.
Happy new year everyone.
